{"id":898,"date":"2026-06-01T10:30:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T10:30:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/california-relocation-journal.com\/?p=898"},"modified":"2026-06-01T10:30:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T10:30:43","slug":"california-will-play-a-big-role-in-the-fight-for-power-in-congress-tuesdays-primary-sets-the-stage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/california-relocation-journal.com\/?p=898","title":{"rendered":"California will play a big role in the fight for power in Congress. Tuesday\u2019s primary sets the stage"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

California\u2019s decision to redraw its congressional map to flip as many as five House seats to Democrats in November is poised to play a big and potentially decisive role in the nation\u2019s broader, bare-knuckle fight for control of Congress.<\/p>\n

Read more Steyer and Hilton scrap for second top spot in tight Tuesday governor\u2019s race primary<\/a><\/p>\n

Tuesday\u2019s primary races \u2014 where the top two candidates will advance to November runoffs \u2014 won\u2019t determine which Republicans are ousted in most cases, but they will provide an important first look at voter sentiment and bring the fall\u2019s most crucial head-to-head contests into focus.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere will be some real cues and signals about what to expect,\u201d said Christian Grose, a redistricting scholar and political science professor at USC. \u201cWe\u2019re going to know how strong the Democrats\u2019 chances are going to be based on who advances.\u201d<\/p>\n

As one example, Grose pointed to the redrawn 22nd Congressional District in the Central Valley, where incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is facing challenges from moderate Assemblymember Jasmeet Kaur Bains (D-Delano) and progressive college professor Randy Villegas.<\/p>\n

Grose said Bains is probably a stronger challenger than Villegas in a district that\u2019s still a reach for Democrats \u2014 even if \u201ceither one could probably beat Valadao if 2026 is a big Democratic wave.\u201d<\/p>\n

Grose will also be closely watching the race between incumbent Reps. Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in the redrawn Congressional District 40, which covers a swath of inland Orange County and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, including parts of Kim\u2019s and Calvert\u2019s current districts.<\/p>\n

The district race wasn\u2019t designed to deliver Democrats a seat, but will produce \u201cone of the first casualties for Republicans from the new map\u201d \u2014 months before other expected ousters \u2014 if Kim and Calvert don\u2019t both advance.<\/p>\n

The national picture<\/h2>\n

The redistricting war was prompted by President Trump\u2019s unprecedented pressuring of Republican-controlled states to redraw their maps mid-decade for partisan advantage in order to retain control of Congress, given his sinking approval ratings and a history of midterm voters punishing the president\u2019s party.<\/p>\n

After Texas Republicans heeded Trump\u2019s call to redraw five districts in their party\u2019s favor, California Democrats responded with Proposition 50, a ballot measure passed by voters in November to sideline the state\u2019s independent redistricting committee and allow Democrats to redraw five congressional districts in their favor. <\/p>\n

The war ratcheted up \u2014 with more Republican states suddenly considering map changes \u2014 after a U.S. Supreme Court decision in April that weakened the 1965 Voting Rights Act and its long-standing protections for majority-Black districts in the South. <\/p>\n

Republicans have now acted to redraw congressional maps in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee, with varying degrees of success, while a battle in Utah could add a single additional Democratic seat there. Attempts in other states have failed, including by the GOP in South Carolina and Democrats in Virginia.<\/p>\n

Experts say the net result from the flurry of redistricting will probably be a gain of a handful or more seats for Republicans \u2014 but in a year when Democrats are expected to make gains more broadly, leaving control of the House up for grabs. California\u2019s new map is \u201ca huge deal\u201d precisely because that math is so close, said David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats are modest favorites for House control based on the political environment, but also because of California,\u201d Wasserman said in an interview with The Times. \u201cPicking up these four or five seats is a prerequisite to Democrats getting the majority.\u201d<\/p>\n

California seats in play<\/h2>\n

California has 52 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, by far the most of any state. With their new map, California Democrats are hoping to increase their 43 House seats to 48. That would leave just four seats represented by members of the GOP despite . <\/p>\n

But that outcome isn\u2019t guaranteed.<\/p>\n

Paul Mitchell, a Democratic redistricting expert who devised California\u2019s new map, said the reconfigured congressional districts had to create a pathway for new Democrats to win additional seats without undermining incumbent Democrats\u2019 reelection. And the result is a map with three pretty safe pickups for Democrats, and two districts that are \u201c100% on the table, ready for Democrats to win,\u201d but will nonetheless \u201crequire shoe-leather and grit.\u201d<\/p>\n

The redrawn congressional district boundaries enacted by Proposition 50 promise to shake up at least three seats, experts said.<\/p>\n

Read more Burned ballots, other election vandalism in L.A. just days before election day<\/a><\/p>\n

Congressional District 1<\/b>: Held by the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale) for 13 years until his death in January, the district is currently rural and conservative, stretching from the Sacramento outskirts through Redding to the Oregon border and California\u2019s northeastern corner. Under the state\u2019s new congressional district map, it loses some of its rural reaches and picks up liberal coastal communities, and favors a Democrat such as state Sen. Mike McGuire, who is one of the leading candidates.<\/p>\n

Congressional District 3: <\/b>The seat is currently held by Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Rocklin) and stretches from the Sacramento suburbs through Lake Tahoe and south along the Nevada border. Under the new map, it holds more tightly to the Sacramento suburbs, favoring a Democrat.<\/p>\n

The changes were enough to convince an incumbent Democrat, Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove), to leave his current district \u2014 Congressional District 6, which includes the city of Sacramento and the suburbs of Roseville and Rocklin in Placer County \u2014 and run in District 3 instead.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Kiley did the reverse. He quit the Republican Party, became an independent and announced he would be leaving District 3 and running instead in District 6 \u2014 the one Bera is leaving \u2014 against a slate of new Democratic challengers.<\/p>\n

Congressional District 41. <\/b>The seat is now held by Calvert, a 17-term incumbent, and currently stretches from Corona to the Coachella Valley. The new map made the district more liberal, losing voters in Riverside County and gaining them in Los Angeles County, and Calvert decided to run instead in Kim\u2019s redrawn but still Republican-leaning Congressional District 40 that is just to the west.<\/p>\n

The two toughest flips for Democrats, experts said, are Congressional District 22, Valadao\u2019s heavily Latino district in the Central Valley, followed by Congressional District 48 in San Diego and Riverside counties, where Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) decided to retire rather than run for reelection.<\/p>\n

Valadao is viewed as especially vulnerable because of his recent support for Medicaid cuts, but he has proved resilient in the past. Meanwhile, his two leading Democratic challengers, Bains and Villegas, are in a bitter fight, with Bains receiving Democratic establishment support and Villegas winning endorsements from prominent progressives.<\/p>\n

In Issa\u2019s district, moderate Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond is running against several infighting Democrats, including San Diego Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert and former Obama labor official Ammar Campa-Najjar.<\/p>\n

Not new, or over<\/h2>\n

Jeff Wice, a New York Law School professor who was involved in California redistricting efforts in 2010, said the state \u201chas long played hardball politics on redistricting,\u201d including when then-Rep. Phil Burton, a powerful San Francisco Democrat, bragged more than 40 years ago<\/span> that the complex congressional boundaries he\u2019d crafted for Democrats were his \u201ccontribution to modern art.\u201d<\/p>\n

But in five decades studying redistricting, Wice said he has never seen such \u201cpolitically driven, partisan politics\u201d as are occurring now across the nation, which he said have \u201cno root in law, reason or fairness\u201d \u2014 and are only likely to continue. <\/p>\n

\u201cThis state-by-state war is far from over, and may continue all the way through 2030,\u201d he said. \u201cA lot of it depends on the outcome of this November\u2019s election.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wasserman said the country has \u201centered an era of no-holds-barred redistricting,\u201d and he also sees redistricting efforts continuing \u2014 including in California, where they would present a distinct threat to the state\u2019s few remaining Republicans.<\/p>\n

Michael Li, senior counsel in the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law, said California is a \u201cbig part of the story\u201d this election cycle, thanks to Proposition 50. \u201cDemocrats in California proved to be very determined and resourceful and managed to get that done, and right now California is the big offset to Republican gerrymandering around the country,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But what will come of it all \u2014 in California and across the country \u2014 is still to be determined.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you\u2019re gerrymandering, you\u2019re making a bet that you know what the politics of the future will look like, and it\u2019s hard to predict,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s a high-risk, high-reward venture.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Your last-minute guide to L.A. City Council elections<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California redistricting could net Democrats an additional five House seats, a major factor in the fight for control of Congress. The upcoming primaries will set the stage for November’s most critical match-ups.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":651,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nCalifornia will play a big role in the fight for power in Congress. 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