{"id":856,"date":"2026-05-29T04:30:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T04:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/california-relocation-journal.com\/?p=856"},"modified":"2026-05-29T04:30:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T04:30:10","slug":"becerra-leads-governors-race-with-hilton-and-steyer-in-tight-contest-for-second-spot-poll-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/california-relocation-journal.com\/?p=856","title":{"rendered":"Becerra leads governor\u2019s race, with Hilton and Steyer in tight contest for second spot, poll finds"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

On the cusp of California\u2019s gubernatorial June 2 primary, voters are closely divided among three candidates vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom at a perilous moment in the state and nation\u2019s history, according to a poll released Thursday.<\/p>\n

Read more The latest on our gray whales<\/a><\/p>\n

Among likely California voters, 25% support Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former Biden Cabinet secretary, according to the survey by UC Berkeley\u2019s Institute of Governmental Studies that was co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator and British political strategist, has the backing of 21%, while 19% backed billionaire hedge fund founder turned environmental activist Tom Steyer, a Democrat.<\/p>\n

The survey provided the clearest indication yet that the three have separated themselves from the rest of the field. Support increased for Becerra, Hilton and Steyer since the last Berkeley IGS poll in March. Becerra leapfrogged everyone. In early March he wallowed near the bottom of the pack at just 5% support among likely voters, and now is the front-runner.<\/p>\n

The other candidates floundered. Support for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, dropped 5% and he now finds himself in a distant fourth place. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine dropped by almost half to 7%. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond \u2014 all Democrats \u2014 remained mired in the single digits.<\/p>\n

Poll director Mark DiCamillo cautioned that it remains unclear which candidates will finish in first and second place in the June 2 primary, a pivotal question since only the top two finishers will advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation. The low voter turnout thus far makes predicting the outcome especially difficult.<\/p>\n

Although every registered voter in California was sent a mail-in ballot, many have not returned them or dropped them off at voting locations \u2014 a telltale sign of the uncertain nature of this year\u2019s governor\u2019s race. The survey, which included all 61 of the gubernatorial candidates on the ballot, found that Democratic turnout thus far is noticeably lower compared with past primary elections, DiCamillo said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re assuming that … the Democrats will in fact turn out in the final week after we had concluded our poll and begin to make up ground on what looks like an early lead for Hilton, and those voters favor Becerra,\u201d DiCamillo said. <\/p>\n

The survey, conducted between May 19 and 24, found that likely Democratic voters favored Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points. Voters registered as \u201cno party preference\u201d were evenly divided between Becerra, Steyer and Hilton. Among likely Republican voters, Hilton led Bianco by almost 2 to 1. <\/p>\n

Becerra also had a notable edge over Steyer among women and Latino voters, while Steyer had an advantage among Black voters. Hilton was favored over the two Democrats among self-identified libertarians and among voters in Orange County, the Central Valley and northern coast and Sierra region. <\/p>\n

The poll found that 7% of voters remained undecided.<\/p>\n

For the first time in more than a quarter of a century, the contest to lead the nation\u2019s most populous state and the world\u2019s fourth-largest economy has consistently lacked a front-runner despite a plethora of candidates.<\/p>\n

Two of California\u2019s best-known Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, both toyed with a run for governor before deciding not to run, which contributed to the sluggishness of the race. The 2026 campaign for governor also languished in the shadow of the mayhem stirred up by President Trump, including his immigration raids throughout Southern California, and the devastation wrought by the 2025 Pacific Palisades and Altadena wildfires.<\/p>\n

But a whirlwind of recent developments has drawn attention to the race.<\/p>\n

Former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin), once a front-runner in the contest, withdrew from the race and resigned from Congress in the aftermath of multiple allegations of sexual misconduct and assault that he denies.<\/p>\n

Additionally, record-breaking amounts of money have flowed into the race. Steyer has smashed state self-funding records by contributing $212 million to his campaign as of Tuesday, according to the California secretary of state\u2019s office. Nearly $85 million has been donated to independent expenditure committees by corporations, labor unions, tech titans, Native American tribes and other special interests, most of which will have policy interests that will be in front of the next governor. <\/p>\n

Although the 2026 California governor\u2019s race lacks the allure of recent contests that featured candidates such as global movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, political scion Jerry Brown and former San Francisco mayor and likely 2028 presidential candidate Gavin Newsom, it is unfolding at a crucial time for Californians.<\/p>\n

The state\u2019s most vulnerable residents are facing severe reductions to medical care because of looming federal healthcare funding cuts, and California\u2019s budget, already volatile because of its reliance on the state\u2019s wealthiest residents, may grow more unpredictable. California\u2019s highest-in-the-nation gas prices increased even more because of the U.S.-Iran war, adding to the state\u2019s entrenched affordability crisis, which has driven many residents out of the state.<\/p>\n

Read more A bitter slugfest in Central Valley exposes divisions in the Democratic Party<\/a><\/p>\n

The cost of living, homelessness and public safety were among the top concerns expressed by voters, according to the poll. Protecting voting rights was also supported by most voters, though their underlying concerns could be starkly different based on their political views. <\/p>\n

Democrats have been focused on the disenfranchisement of voters, a fear that has heightened in the aftermath of a recent Supreme Court decision that gutted a section of the Voting Rights Act that forced states to draw voting districts to help elect Black or Latino representatives to Congress. Republicans echo President Trump\u2019s claims of elections being rigged.<\/p>\n

Voters split largely along party lines about issues such as Trump\u2019s policies about climate change, immigration and taxes.<\/p>\n

Voters\u2019 uncertainty in the governor\u2019s race is partly driven by California\u2019s unique, voter-approved \u201cjungle\u201d primary system, in which the two candidates who win the most votes in the June 2 primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation.<\/p>\n

Although the state\u2019s voters are largely registered Democrats, the party\u2019s leaders feared earlier this year that they would splinter among the multiple Democrats on the ballot, leading to Hilton and Bianco, also a Republican, advancing to the November general election and ensuring that a Republican would be elected governor. Bianco had the backing of 11% in the new Berkeley survey.<\/p>\n

The Republicans were once roughly tied in polls, until Trump endorsed Hilton in April. More than one-third of likely Republican voters said Trump\u2019s endorsement of Hilton made them more likely to support him. Among voters who identified with the \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d movement, nearly two-thirds supported Hilton while less than 3 in 10 backed Bianco.<\/p>\n

Though Bianco\u2019s followers seem to be more passionate, \u201cHilton has got the much broader base of support, and then he got Trump\u2019s endorsement,\u201d DiCamillo said.<\/p>\n

He added that Hilton\u2019s rise is unusual in California, where statewide candidates typically spend enormous sums of money to raise their visibility among the state\u2019s 23.1 million registered voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat\u2019s interesting about Hilton is that he hasn\u2019t really done much of his campaigning in the traditional way. He hasn\u2019t run huge amounts of television advertising, you don\u2019t see his name out there in the traditional media, other than in free media,\u201d DiCamillo said. \u201cYou can see that in the data, because almost a third of voters still have no opinion of Hilton … about what it was back in March, which is startling for a candidate who is among the leaders.\u201d <\/p>\n

Democrats\u2019 fear of being locked out of the November general election led party leaders and allies to effectively urge low-polling candidates to drop out of the race in remarkable public statements in March.<\/p>\n

The tables have since turned \u2014 the prospect of two Republicans winning the top spots in the June primary appear nonexistent, while polling shows a small possibility of two Democrats advancing to the general election.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m not saying it\u2019s likely, but it\u2019s possible that two Democrats could emerge, and that would have huge implications on turnout in the [November] election,\u201d DiCamillo said, pointing to California congressional races that could shape control of the U.S. House of Representatives. \u201cIf you don\u2019t have a Republican at the top of the ticket, it would be dismal for the Republicans\u2019 chances.\u201d<\/p>\n

The poll of 8,578 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points in either direction.<\/p>\n

Read more Your last-minute voter guide to California\u2019s 2026 primary election<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On the cusp of California\u2019s gubernatorial primary, voters are closely split among three candidates to succeed Gov. 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