{"id":1120,"date":"2026-06-17T10:30:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/california-relocation-journal.com\/?p=1120"},"modified":"2026-06-17T10:30:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:30:10","slug":"gerrymanders-judges-and-an-alley-oop-a-look-at-the-midterm-fight-for-control-of-congress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/california-relocation-journal.com\/?p=1120","title":{"rendered":"Gerrymanders, judges and an alley-oop: A look at the midterm fight for control of Congress"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Today, we discuss political jockeying, litigation and Hail Mary passes.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s so much going on these days …<\/b><\/p>\n

Indeed.<\/p>\n

Between <\/b>the war with Iran<\/b>, <\/b>the World Cup<\/b> and <\/b>President Trump slapping his filigreed <\/b>(<\/b>emphasis greed<\/i><\/b>) name on everything in sight, I\u2019ve completely lost track of the fight for control of Congress.<\/b><\/p>\n

Read more Sensing political opportunity, Newsom touts investigation he says is Trump\u2019s doing<\/a><\/p>\n

Well, now that the California gubernatorial primary is in the rear view, let\u2019s catch up. The midterm election is not until November, of course. But a fierce political competition, aimed at skewing the result, has been underway since last summer.<\/p>\n

It started in Texas, where Trump strong-armed Republican lawmakers into redrawing their congressional map in hopes of boosting the GOP\u2019s chances of keeping control of the House. That led California voters to pass an eye-for-an-eye measure aimed at boosting Democratic prospects.<\/p>\n

Other states joined the skirmishing, capped by Virginia, where voters in April approved new political lines aimed at netting Democrats as many as four additional seats.<\/p>\n

For a short time, it looked as though Trump\u2019s move had backfired and Democrats might actually come out ahead, at least on paper, by a seat or two.<\/p>\n

And then?<\/b><\/p>\n

And then the courts stepped in.<\/p>\n

In a 4-3 decision in May, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the state\u2019s new congressional map, ruling that the Democratic-run legislature had violated procedural requirements when it placed the constitutional measure on the ballot.<\/p>\n

But the more significant legal decision came a week prior, when the U.S. Supreme Court nullified a major part of the federal Voting Rights Act, freeing several Southern states to hastily redraw a number of congressional districts to Republicans\u2019 advantage.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/b><\/p>\n

It looks as though the GOP has come out ahead, but not by more than a handful of seats, give or take. It\u2019s important to note that all that cartographic competition offers no guarantee of success.<\/p>\n

\u201cCartographic competition<\/i>?\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Those gerrymandered maps were drawn for the express purpose of helping out one party or the other, but the partisan manipulation doesn\u2019t make all those redrawn districts a lock come November.<\/p>\n

In California, for instance, the Central Valley seat held by Republican David Valadao \u2014 a perennial Democratic target \u2014 remains highly competitive. In Texas, GOP lawmakers redrew their map assuming the substantial Latino support that Trump enjoyed in 2024 would carry over to Republican candidates in this year\u2019s midterm election. That seems increasingly less likely, given shifting Latino attitudes, which means at least two of those redrawn Texas seats are more competitive than Republicans would like.<\/p>\n

Bottom line, where does that leave things in the fight for control of the House?<\/b><\/p>\n

There are no certainties …<\/p>\n

… Beyond death and taxes. Understood.<\/b><\/p>\n

It still seems more likely than not that Democrats will win the House in November.<\/p>\n

They just need to gain three seats. Going back more than half a century, the out party (which is to say the one not in the White House) has gained an average of more than two dozen House seats in the midterm election. So Democrats have that going for them.<\/p>\n

Read more People are betting on elections in prediction markets. Congress is watching<\/a><\/p>\n

Also, more significantly, Trump\u2019s approval ratings \u2014 in a word \u2014 stink. There\u2019s a very strong correlation between a president\u2019s standing in polls and his party\u2019s performance, given midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in the White House. Since disgruntled voters are more likely to turn out, that means the out party typically gains seats.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt would be one thing if Republicans were trying to buck a historical trend and they were doing so strengthened by a popular Republican president,\u201d said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with the authoritative nonpartisan political guide Inside Elections. \u201cBut that\u2019s simply not the case. … [Trump] is less popular than any president heading into a midterm election in a very long time.\u201d<\/p>\n

What about control of the Senate?<\/b><\/p>\n

Advantage Republicans.<\/p>\n

How so?<\/b><\/p>\n

Part of it is straight-up math. Democrats need to flip four seats. There are 35 Senate races being decided this fall, but only 10 or so are even remotely competitive. Nearly all are in states that Trump carried.<\/p>\n

That said, things are looking up considerably for Democrats from where they were a few months ago.<\/b><\/p>\n

Oh?<\/b><\/p>\n

There\u2019s much less correlation between presidential approval and the outcome of Senate races. Still, Trump is putting up some pretty strong headwinds that Republicans will have to overcome this fall, including in battleground states such as Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina. (His gaseous effusions \u2014 \u201cI love the inflation,\u201d \u201cAffordability is a con job\u201d \u2014 are not helpful, to put it mildly, when gasoline and hamburger are costing hard-pressed voters an arm and a leg, respectively.)<\/p>\n

And Democrats have done about as well as they could have hoped in landing their preferred candidates in the Republican-leaning states of Alaska, Ohio and Iowa, making those contests far more competitive than they would have been.<\/p>\n

What about Maine<\/b>?<\/b><\/p>\n

That started out as Democrats\u2019 top target this election cycle. Five-term incumbent Susan Collins has the distinction of being the only Republican senator running in a state that Kamala Harris won. The race is still considered a toss-up. <\/p>\n

But the nomination of Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and Marine Corps veteran with a history that is, um, problematic \u2014 a tattoo resembling a Nazi SS symbol he did or did not apprehend; extramarital sexting; coarse online commentary \u2014 could turn the race into more of a referendum on the Democrat than either Trump or Collins.<\/p>\n

And Texas?<\/b><\/p>\n

You mean the boneyard of Democratic dreams?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been decades since the party won a statewide race in Texas, despite all manner of attempts. (The \u201cdream team\u201d of a white\/Black\/Latino slate; the streaking-comet candidacies of Beto O\u2019Rourke and Wendy Davis, who both flamed out short of victory.)<\/p>\n

Democrats are giddy again, this time over 37-year-old state Sen. James Talarico, who\u2019s built a national following with his telegenic, Christian-infused progressive platform. More pertinent, he\u2019s running against a singularly flawed Republican nominee, state Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton, whose dubious resume is muddied with a felony indictment, impeachment by the GOP-run Texas House and allegations of repeated adultery.<\/p>\n

Still, it\u2019s Texas. Electing Talarico would be like connecting on one of those last-second, desperation, alley-oop passes in the end zone. Not impossible. <\/p>\n

Read more 22-year-old reinvents weather balloons so they can return home, saving money, reducing waste<\/a><\/p>\n

But don\u2019t bet the ranch.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the redistricting battle just about over, Republicans come out ahead but are still at serious risk of losing the House. Democrats face an uphill fight to win the Senate, but their odds have improved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1119,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nGerrymanders, judges and an alley-oop: A look at the midterm fight for control of Congress - California Relocation Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/california-relocation-journal.com\/?p=1120\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gerrymanders, judges and an alley-oop: A look at the midterm fight for control of Congress - California Relocation Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With the redistricting battle just about over, Republicans come out ahead but are still at serious risk of losing the House. 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